Sudan-Uganda-Kenya Dynamics

=Uganda=

Sudan's relationship with Uganda became stormy in the 1970s, after the overthrow of Ugandan President Milton Obote by military dictator General Idi Amin Dad in a military coup. According to the Sudan Handbook from the Rift Valley Institute, Idi Amin, who had been put in power with Israeli help, initially supported the anti-Khartoum Anyanya guerillas, which led Khartoum to provide Obote with a military base at Owinyi Kibul in southern Sudan from which to harass northern Uganda. But Amin did an about-turn, rallied to the 'progressive' Arab camp, and betrayed the Anyanya rebels. In return, Khartoum kicked out Obote.

Uganda broke off diplomatic relations with Sudan in 1994, accusing it of helping rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army in northern Uganda. Sudan, for its part, accuses Uganda of supporting the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army, which is fighting in southern Sudan.

=Kenya=

Kenya is one of the few countries bordering Sudan that has had a largely non-conflictual relationship with its government. Culturally a significant proportion of the Sudanese population has linkages to several other Kenyan communities. They share languages, culture and have a long historical linkage.

According to analyst Peter Howes, Kenya has, over the past few years, enjoyed cordial relations with Sudan: taking in countless refugees both from what is now South Sudan and from Darfur, including tens of thousands of Sudanese migrants in the vast Kakuma Refugee camp in its north west. As of 2012, however, it is struggling to balance the opportunity to profit from South Sudan’s independence (and oil, more specifically) whilst its own high court demands the arrest of Sudanese President President Omar al-Bashir, but finding itself unwilling to risk a complete diplomatic impasse in its relations with Khartoum.

Howes offers the opinion that Nairobi may find that it is forced to choose between prioritising its relationship with Khartoum or South Sudan. He writes that Kenya appears to want it both ways: recognising the potential of South Sudan as a key partner and agreeing to various infrastructural investments with the country, including the recent pipeline agreement between the south and the Kenyan port of Lamu, which hypothetically bypasses the need for a Sudanese role in the production of South Sudan’s oil reserves, whilst seemingly placating Khartoum by ignoring its own High Court’s ruling demanding the arrest of the ICC-charged Bashir.

Following this High Court decision, in November 2011, the Sudanese government took the surprise step of asking the Kenyan ambassador in Khartoum to leave the country. Kenya, an ICC state party, allowed Bashir in August 2010 to visit drawing strong rebuke from Western nations and rights groups. It also angered the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) headed by Prime Minister Raila Odinga which shares the coalition government with arty National Unity (PNU) led by president Mwai Kibaki.

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